Sailing strategy: wind shifts, choosing your side and when to follow the fleet

Tactics are about the next hour. Strategy is about the whole leg: which part of the sea do you want to be in when the wind does what it is going to do? On a 200-mile leg that one decision can matter more than every tack together.

The basic idea: go towards the next shift

Say you are sailing upwind and the forecast says the wind will veer, turning clockwise, during the leg. The boat further to the right will gain. When the shift arrives she tacks and points much closer to the mark, while the boat out on the left finds herself further behind than she was.

So the classic rule is: upwind, sail first towards the side the wind will shift to. It is simple to say and very hard to do when the boat on your other side looks faster at this moment.

Two words you need:

• Lift: the wind moves aft, so you can point closer to your target. On starboard tack a veer is a lift.
• Header: the wind moves forward and pushes you away from your target. On starboard tack a back is a header. A common answer is to tack.

The console's WIND SHIFT gauge shows whether you are lifted or headed, and which tack is favoured.

Oscillating or persistent?

Before acting, ask what kind of shift it is:

• Persistent: the wind goes on turning one way, usually with a passing weather system. Get to that side early and be patient.
• Oscillating: the wind swings back and forth. Stay near the middle and tack on the headers.

The forecast helps you tell them apart. In the race, step ahead +6 and +12 hours and look at how the wind changes along your leg. Then watch WIND TREND on INSTR to see whether the real wind agrees.

More wind or a shorter way?

Downwind and on reaches, the question usually changes from angle to pressure. A detour of 20 miles to reach stronger wind can win, or the wind can fill in behind you and the detour costs you the leg. Do the sum before you turn off: extra distance at the faster speed against the direct way at the slower speed. A rough figure is enough.

Land complicates this. Near a high coast the wind bends and weakens. Going close to a headland shortens the way, but it can also leave you sitting without wind. The race only treats the coast as a danger, but the choice between near and far is a real one.

The fleet: follow, cover or split

The FLEET list shows every boat's gap with a green ▲ or a red ▼. It is useful and dangerous:

• Follow when you are ahead and just need to stay between the others and the mark.
• Split when you are behind. Doing the same as the leaders usually means finishing behind them.
• Do not copy a boat without knowing why. She may have seen something you missed, or she may have left her boat alone since last night.

Note also that the live ranking measures the straight distance to the next mark and mark to mark afterwards, with no account taken of wind or land. A boat high up the list may be in a hole, or behind an island. Being "ahead" means little until the mark is passed.

An exercise for this week

On your next long leg, before you choose:

1. Write one line: "I expect the wind to do X, so I will go to side Y."
2. Note your place and distance to the mark.
3. Twelve hours later, compare your gain or loss with a boat that went the other way.

Do this five times and you will have learnt more about your own decisions than from any single win. The next article on tactics covers the close-range decisions, and this one on judging decisions explains how to read your results.

FAQ

Does this apply to my club races?

The principles do. A short race has more local effects and much more interaction between boats, because in our races the boats pass through each other and there are no right-of-way situations.

Is a forecast reliable enough to base a strategy on?

Not blindly. That is part of the exercise. Plan on the forecast, keep some room to change your mind, and watch whether the real wind is following it.

Related reading

• Sailing tactics you can train online: laylines, VMG and when to tack
• Practise passage planning from home: forecast, route and options in a real-time race
• Good decision or lucky outcome? How to learn from your own sailing results
• Online sailing regatta simulator — a series of long races round real seas, now THE ROARING NORTH SEA
• Sailing simulator — sail trim, tacks, gybes, reefing and the kites in today's real wind, in the browser
• All articles · Open the simulator

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